IN another seventy-two hours Nigerians will queue to elect Muhammadu Buhari’s successor. I have argued over the last six months that of the most talked about candidates, only two have a realistic chance of being elected president based on existing rules.

They are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). I recognise that Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) would be a critical factor as a disrupter, but that disruption can only weaken one of the big two – it won’t make him president.

As for Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Kano State Governor and federal minister, I keep scratching my head to understand his game. It certainly isn’t to win on Saturday because the best of his New Nigerian People’s Party’s (NNPP) efforts thus far haven’t given him traction beyond his home state and a few surrounding ones. I can only assume that he is trying to reenact the old Aminu Kano phenomenon of being a sub-regional powerhouse. His People’s Redemption Party (PRP) had phenomenal following mainly in Kano and, to a lesser degree, in Kaduna.

Kwankwaso, like Obi, would have a disruptive influence on the presidential election in Kano. This state has the second largest vote pot in the country and it is one in which any potential winner must perform well in to have any hope. It had been a traditional PDP stronghold until it switched to the APC column in 2015 following the then governor’s defection.

In this cycle, APC retains the power of incumbency. When Kwankwaso pulled out to found NNPP, he virtually sucked life out of what was PDP in the state – leaving it enfeebled and riven with factions. Today, most analysts expect it to emerge a distant third after the dust settles.

For Tinubu and APC everything seemed to going well until they receive the sucker punches of petrol and naira scarcities. It created the worst case scenario for a ruling party going into an election. In the annals of own goals, this was a spectacular strike and not many could have seen it coming. It was friendly fire coming from the most unexpected of quarters – a feast for conspiracy theorists.

Until this February surprise, the presidential candidate and his party had managed to present a united front, papering over bitter fallouts that have lingered since the primaries. This is in direct contrast to the PDP’s intractable civil war which has seen a reenactment of the Gang of Five governors’ revolt of 2014.

That rebellion led to the so-called New PDP joining forces with other legacy parties to birth APC and ultimately topple a ruling party that was so confident of its strength, it’s one-time leader bragged it would govern for an unbroken length of sixty years.

Eight years ago the PDP under Goodluck Jonathan and then party chair, Bamanga Tukur, dismissed the five governors along with their allies as troublemakers whose exit would herald a new dawn of peace. They refused to meet them half way. But in doing so they empowered a fledgling opposition, transforming it overnight into a national platform with sufficient spread to win the presidential polls.

In an uncanny way, the party has repeated the same mistake. In not bending over backwards to secure the commitment of Nyesom Wike and his G-5 colleagues, PDP has jeopardised its chances in a must-win state and four other potentially pivotal ones.

Anyone who knows Nigerian politics understands that any winner must take all or most of Lagos, Kano and Rivers States. As things stand the big three are well outside the influence of Atiku and firmly inclined to fall into Tinubu’s laps. If the former Vice President falls below his 2019 vote levels in these states and the APC support holds or grows, he is toast.

Bear in mind that most analysts expect Obi to do well in Lagos and Rivers – eating into the traditional PDP base. They also expect him to win in almost all of the Southeast states – fishing grounds that Atiku would ordinarily be banking on. In fact the expectation is not just that Obi will prevail on home ground, the only unknown is how much he would devastate the PDP vote.

The main opposition party’s strategy in plumping for Atiku – a Northerner – to succeed Buhari, another Northerner who would have spent eight years in office, was the assumption that regional/ethnic solidarity would trump all else. Against his calculations, the intriguers who tried to sell the lie that only a fellow Northerner could go against the ex-VP, failed to successfully execute their plot at the APC primaries.

They tried and failed to sell Senate President Ahmed Lawan as consensus candidate. It was because there was really no such regional agreement either with APC or cross party. In the end it was 14 Northern governors who decided that power must shift South and that Tinubu would be the beneficiary of their support. In taking that step they entwined their political destinies with his.

From that moment on Atiku was no longer running against Tinubu alone, he was up against the APC candidate, his Northern governor allies and everything their powers of incumbency can bring to the table. For every time the Turaki Adamawa tries to posture as a regional champion, he comes up against the likes of Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, Kano’s Abdullahi Ganduje or Vice Presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, who can also rightly claim to be power brokers in the same zone.

That’s another way of saying Atiku is no Buhari and would not be inheriting the incumbent president’s captive 12 million votes just because he is Fulani or from Adamawa State. As the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola showed in 1993 when he defeated the National Republican Convention’s (NRC), Bashir Tofa, with the right allies and platform, a well-connected Southerner can floor a flawed Northerner on his home turf.

So if Atiku isn’t sure of the Southeast, Southwest, South-South and is not certain of pulling 12 million votes from the hat like Buhari, where’s his pathway to the presidency? Obi’s fatal handicap is how to secure 25% of votes cast in 24 states given that his support is anaemic in the North and Southwest.

That leaves Tinubu in a very strong position. He only needs to produce a good performance at home, perform better than Buhari in the South-South and Southeast, and using his party structures manage a strong outing across the three Northern zones. His reception as he campaigned across the region shows this is quite attainable.

In the end all candidates have made their case to the Nigerian people. They have told us their grand plans, although in many instances conveniently left out how they intend to make these things happen. What they have said they would do isn’t enough reason to vote for them. What if they don’t keep their promises? Obi and his running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, sometimes glibly respond “hold us responsible if we don’t deliver.” How? When you are already in office wielding presidential power?

Instead of depending on a politician’s words, look at what he has done; look at his track record when he had the power to do good. Examine what his vision produced when he was governor or Vice President.

I have assessed the leading candidates. Like all humans they have flaws. For every salacious story peddled about Tinubu, you would find an equivalent surrounding Atiku or Obi. But these are the ones the process has thrown up for us to vote as our next president.

Based on what we know about them I have no difficulty endorsing Tinubu for president. As Lagos State governor he outlined a vision that many states have copied. He is celebrated for his ability to put together a brilliant team and the succession process he put in place has worked fairly well. Many testify that he is a compassionate man and God knows Nigeria desperately needs an empathetic leader at this time.

He is bold. He spoke out against the anti-people naira redesign fiasco at a time most politicians would have gladly sulked in silence for fear of offending the powers-that-be. When he sensed that powerful forces were conspiring to deny him the APC ticket, he cried out ‘Emilokan!’ The rest is history.

Just as important, the country needs a strong president with the courage to take the hard decisions needed for a turnaround. He was tough enough to take on former President Olusegun Obasanjo when he confiscated Lagos State funds. He fought him when he was rampaging through the country sponsoring crooked impeachment against governors.

Even his decision to pick someone of same faith as running mate has turned out to be inspired and justified. Once he was clear about his objective, the fallout that would follow didn’t matter. A country that has wobbled because of a long running leadership problem needs a firm hand at the tiller. Tinubu is the man this moment calls for.

Festus Eriye